Plan for More

Across Asia , populations are increasing while fish stocks are declining due to unsustainable fishing practices. This has triggered concern in developing Asian countries as to their ability to improve nutrition and income of the poor. Fish is the major source of food for the poor in Asia , and consumption is rising rapidly. It is a critical source of protein, calcium and other materials.

In 2000 WorldFish embarked on a project to help governments make predictions on the future supply and demand for fish. The project, which is supported by the Asian Development Bank, is in response to a request from Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Vietnam. The project is due to end in 2004.

Fish is also important economically to these countries, a number of which export high-value fish to earn vital foreign exchange, and import low-priced ones for domestic consumption.

According to the best available data, these nine countries produced 51.1 per cent of the world's fish in 2001, and consumed over 40 per cent of the world's fish products in 1997.

Central to the project is the development of the AsiaFish Model. The first of its kind, this multi-market country model allows governments to make detailed projections and to develop strategies and options for sustaining and increasing fish supply up to the year 2020.

The model helps answer key questions like: What are the prospects for the availability of fish in the future, given current trends? Is there room for growth in fisheries production, in particular aquaculture? Can the expansion of fish trade be sustained?

It looks at how things like price movements, policy and technological changes, and buyer patterns and preferences affect the supply and demand for different fish species (both cultured and wild).

Among the findings of the study are:

• Fisheries output in the nine countries will continue to expand from 2005 to 2020, but the rate of increase will be slower than in the previous decade.
• The increase in fish output will continue to be dominated by aquaculture, with China, Malaysia and Thailand likely to experience the largest expansion in the sector. Marine and inland fisheries in the nine countries are under threat.
• The participation of the nine countries in international trade is likely to expand.
• China will be the dominant exporter among the nine countries in 2020, accounting of about 52 per cent of the total and dwarfing Southeast Asia, whose share of the export market will shrink.
• With the exception of the Philippines, fish imports of all countries are likely to expand.
• Bangladesh and the Philippines could experience a decline in capture fisheries, which could be a cause of concern. Fish consumption in all countries is likely to rise. Malaysia 's fish consumption could expand a dramatic six-fold by 2020, which could mean higher imports if aquaculture cannot keep pace.

Meanwhile, freshwater fish, which is relatively low-priced and has limited export market, is set to become an increasingly important source of animal protein in developing Asian countries, especially for the middle and low-income groups.

WorldFish has determined that the most effective and socially acceptable -- as well as environmentally friendly--form of aquaculture for poor Asian farmers is semi-intensive, freshwater polyculture of low-priced tilapia and carp. Both are popular fishes throughout Asia .

The carp is omnivorous while tilapia is largely herbivorous. They can therefore live amicably together: common carp, for example, spend much of their time rooting round for detritus and insect larvae in the mud at the bottom. Tilapia, on the other hand, feed on zooplankton, suspended solids, vegetable waste and grass clippings.

However, there is a need for developing new technologies and sharing them, strengthening extension services and educating farmers to boost farm productivity, especially in Bangladesh, Vietnam and India where there is sizable inefficiency among extensive and semi-intensive farms.

Aquaculture, especially freshwater aquaculture, benefits many poor rural communities in Asia . The region is endowed with enormous freshwater resources such as ponds, closed water bodies, rivers, estuaries and flood plains. In Bangladesh, only half of the total ponds are stocked with fish, which means there is vast potential for the poorest members of society to become fish farmers. In Vietnam, only about 38 per cent of the total freshwater area has been utilized, while India has exploited only 10 per cent of its potential, despite decades of rapid aquaculture growth.